Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Business
Samuel

Correlating price evolution with the underlying asset’s technology: getting emotionally biased

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I can see that everywhere among hobbyist traders. “Read about the tech”, “Do your research”, “I’ve read the whitepaper”, and so on and so on…

I’m sure you are all already able to read English language. We all want money without having to work every day. Surely, finding a nice sounding project, putting money in, at whatever time, and waiting, will do the trick. No need to learn extra skills.

If the price drops a little, no worry: “the tech is good, let’s wait a few years then my coin will make me a millionaire.”

If the price drops by -95%, does this argument still stand?

Let’s be honest: on bear markets, the technology stays the same. The only logical conclusion to this, is that the price and the technology and the product are not inherently linked.

On the other hand, we have all witnessed assets with poor technology getting impressively pumped. Sure, some non-tech savvy people will get upset when hearing the fact that simply passing transactions through a TOR node is nothing revolutionary and is a pretty poor and basic idea; however, this is the simple truth. But we have all witnessed Verge (XVG) doing +4000% in 2018.

Developers don’t care

Ask the coders about the price. Although they surely, in some way care about the price,   it is not their priority. They joined a start-up with an ambitious project, and an interesting problem to solve. They have a salary, and surely a small stack of coin, but they are not traders and they know it. That’s why they do not rely on the market to feed themselves.

Even for the CEO, its coin’s value may be secondary in its mind. Many projects are already backed with more than enough money glad to ICOs. Some are financed by traditional VC and they won’t win any more funds if the price rises.

Only teams with pre-mined coins and horrible distribution schemes are doing a fixation on the price. And you surely don’t want to play with those crooked cryptos.

Guts taking over the brain

 Reading forums again and again, reading shills, and ambitious tweets about your favourite coin is not doing good for you. It is propaganda, usually made by greedy kids. “The idea sounds great”, “the developers look competent”, “the website’s design is nice.” The general enthusiasm you read pushes you even more to buy and fall in love with the team, on whose all your hopes will lay.

All those components of your decision-making process are purely emotional: children and journalists are not financial advisors, nor are developers. You shouldn’t read them to “predict” the future price of your cryptos.

Regaining self-honesty

Every genuine investor knows that less than 5% of start-ups are going to indeed succeed. It is the same for coins, and each of them can be seen as the “next revolution” if you spend enough time to read brainwashing material about them.

Look at reddit and other circlejerks. They only want to comfort each other that their coin is gonna moon soon. They are not looking for truth. They are not looking to make trades. They are hoping. They are betting. Would you join a student fraternity to receive trading advices?

Every project is at risk of failing. No matter how much you are in love with them. Every project has the possibility to pump. No matter how much you hate them.

The solution

 One of my favourite solution, is to remember that you have the ability to short. Nowadays a large number of altcoins are shortable, mainly on Bitfinex and other exchanges.

You can gain money. No matter if the price dumps or pumps. So why closing your mind in a dream world where bitcoin is mean to reaches the million?

My guess is that most people avoid doing it because they are too lazy to learn and work on new skills. They prefer resting in delusion, reading 150 characters-long tweets, and trolling on telegram.

But if you want real millions, you have to work, learn, and sharpen your skills.

The trading dojo is an educational website about cryptocurrency trading. It’s an amazing starting point for people interested to learn trading skills.

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